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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.